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☆ Yen eases despite intervention threat, Aussie steady before RBA
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The yen continued to drift lower against the dollar on Tuesday as gaping interest rate differentials weighed on the currency, despite fresh warnings from Japanese officials following two rounds of suspected dollar-selling intervention last week. The U.S. dollar gained 0.22% to 154.235 yen in early Asian trading, adding to its 0.58% rally from Monday. The Aussie edged up 0.17% to $0.6636, heading back towards the high of $0.6650 from Friday, a level last seen on March 8. All but one of the 37 economists surveyed in a Reuters poll expect the RBA to keep rates on hold, with the other predicting a quarter point rate hike, amid stubbornly high inflation. "A different set of central bankers would have had the policy rate higher sooner on the same set of data," Taylor Nugent, a markets economist at National Australia Bank, wrote in a note.

Persons: Michele Bullock, Masato Kanda, Carol Kong, Bullock, Taylor Nugent Organizations: U.S, Reserve Bank of Australia, The U.S ., Bank of Japan, Japan's Ministry of Finance, Federal, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Bank of, National Australia Bank Locations: The, Japan

☆ Australia Sept retail sales climb at fastest pace in 8 months
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-30 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Daniel Munoz/file photo Acquire Licensing RightsSYDNEY, Oct 30 (Reuters) - Australian retail sales rose at the fastest pace in eight months in September, suggesting some resilience in consumer spending which would add to the case for an interest rate hike as soon as next week. The Australian dollar rose 0.4% to $0.6360, while three-year government bond yield hit a fresh 12-year high of 4.388%. "Downside risks to household consumption have been a key focus of the RBA, but those do not look to have been realised so far." The broad softening in consumer spending has been one major reason that the RBA has left interest rates unchanged for four straight months now. However, a sustained rebound in housing prices could lend some support to household consumption.

Persons: Daniel Munoz, Ben Dorber, Taylor Nugent, Downside, Stella Qiu, Tom Hogue, Edwina Gibbs, Miral Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Reserve Bank of, Australian Bureau of Statistics, National Australia Bank, Thomson Locations: Sydney's, Australia, Reserve Bank of Australia, Queensland

☆ Australia's surprisingly strong Q3 inflation raises odds of Nov rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Markets are wagering both the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are done with hiking. HAWKISH MESSAGINGThe recent messaging from the central bank has been on the hawkish side. The biggest contributors to the third quarter inflation were fuel, rents, and electricity. Fuel prices rose 7.2% from a year ago, reversing two quarters of price falls, with the conflict in the Middle East potentially set to further stoke inflationary pressures. The central bank forecast in August that inflation was only projected to return to the top of the bank's target band of 2-3% in late 2025.

Persons: David Gray, Worryingly, Adam Boyton, Gareth Aird, Michele Bullock, Woolworths WOW.AX, Taylor Nugent, Stella Qiu, Wayne Cole, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Reserve Bank of Australia, Australian Bureau, Statistics, Wednesday, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, ANZ, Economics, CBA, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Woolworths, National Australia Bank, NAB, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia

☆ RBA to hold rates at 4.10% on Tuesday, but will hike again next quarter: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Two respondents in the Aug 30-Sept 1 poll expected a 25 basis point (bps) hike. Among major local banks, ANZ, CBA, and Westpac expected rates to remain unchanged until at least end-2023, while NAB predicted one more rate hike to 4.35% in November. Three economists expected two more 25 bps hikes in the fourth quarter. While BlackRock and Deutsche Bank expected hikes in November and December, Citi expected moves in October and November. "We think they'll maintain the tightening bias and there may be further risk of a rate hike later in the year," said Benjamin Picton, senior strategist at Rabobank.

Persons: Daniel Munoz, Taylor Nugent, Michele Bullock's, Benjamin Picton, Devayani Sathyan, Susobhan Sarkar, Anant Chandak, Ross Finley, Kim Coghill Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, REUTERS, Rights, NAB, ANZ, CBA, Westpac, BlackRock, Deutsche Bank, Citi, Rabobank, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia

☆ Asian stocks hit 9-month lows on worries over China economy, US rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Losses were broad-based across Asia Pacific on Thursday, with Japan's Nikkei (.N225) and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index (.AXJO) down 1%. "Some participants" cited the risks to the economy of pushing rates too far even as "most" policymakers continued to prioritise the battle against inflation. The U.S. central bank hiked rates by 25 basis points at the July meeting after standing pat in June. The rising yields lifted the dollar, with the dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, touching a two-month peak of 103.58 as investors sought safety. Worries over China and the trajectory of the U.S. interest rates also rattled the commodities market, with oil prices dropping for the fourth straight session.

Persons: Issei Kato, HSI, Taylor Nugent, Jerome Powell, Shunichi Suzuki, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Muralikumar Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Asia Pacific, Japan's Nikkei, NAB, ING, Finance, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, Pacific, China, U.S

☆ Reserve Bank of Australia to raise rates to 4.35% on July 4, decision on a knife edge, poll shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-02 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

While the latest monthly measure of consumer prices showed inflation slowed to 5.6% in May from 6.8% in April, it was still well above the RBA's 2-3% target range, suggesting more tightening may be required. "We don't think a pause in July will reduce the total number of cash rate hikes the Reserve Bank needs to do. Among major local banks, ANZ, NAB and Westpac expected a hike on Tuesday while CBA predicted no move. Just over half of economists, 16 of 30, predicted rates to peak at 4.60% or higher by end-September. Median forecasts showed rates would remain at 4.60% until end-2023.

Persons: Adelaide Timbrell, Taylor Nugent, Devayani Sathyan, Veronica Khongwir, Hari Kishan, Jonathan Cable, Kim Coghill Organizations: Reserve Bank of, ANZ, Bank, NAB, Westpac, CBA, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, Reserve Bank of Australia, Australia

☆ RBA to raise rates to 4.35% on July 4 but decision on a knife edge: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

While the latest monthly measure of consumer prices showed inflation slowed to 5.6% in May from 6.8% in April, it was still well above the RBA's 2-3% target range, suggesting more tightening may be required. Just over half of economists, 16 of 30, predicted rates to peak at 4.60% or higher by end-September. Of the remaining, 13 saw rates at 4.35% and one expected no change from 4.10%. That was 25 basis points higher than the peak expected in a poll taken after the June meeting. Median forecasts showed rates would remain at 4.60% until end-2023.

☆ Asia stocks subdued after Powell testimony fails to surprise
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-22 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SINGAPORE, June 22 (Reuters) - Asian shares made a tentative start to Thursday after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell stuck to his recent hawkish tone as investors assess the future rate policy path from the Fed. Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said on Wednesday the Fed should not raise rates further or it would risk "needlessly" sapping the strength of the U.S. economy. The comments highlight the growing debate at the central bank over when and if the central bank should hike further. "The BoE's conditional guidance put the burden of proof on the data showing more persistent inflation pressures to continue hiking bank rate. Markets will also be awaiting policy decision from Turkey's central bank, with a policy pivot and a sharp rate increase widely expected.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Australia's, Powell, Kevin Cummins, Raphael Bostic, BoE, Taylor Nugent, Sterling, Brent, Lincoln Organizations: Federal, Japan's Nikkei, Fed, NatWest Markets, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Reuters, National Australia Bank, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, Pacific, Japan, China, Hong Kong, Washington, Atlanta, U.S, Turkey's

☆ RBA to hold rates at 3.85% in June, but may raise again soon: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/David GrayThe Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised rates last month after pausing in April, confounding financial markets and a majority of economists who were expecting the central bank to hold. The remaining eight in the poll taken between May 29 and June 1 poll expected a 25 basis point hike. Interest rate futures were pricing in a roughly one-in-three chance of a rate hike then. More than half of respondents, or 18 of 28, expected rates to reach 4.10% or higher by end-September, including four who saw rates at 4.35%. The remaining 10 expected rates to stay at 3.85%.

Persons: David Gray, Philip Lowe, “ we’ve, ”, Taylor Nugent, ” Nugent, Gareth Aird Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, REUTERS, David Gray The Reserve Bank of Australia, ANZ, CBA, NAB, Westpac, Economics Locations: BENGALURU, Sydney, Australia

☆ Australia hikes minimum wage as living costs surge
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Steven Saphore/File PhotoSYDNEY, June 2 (Reuters) - Australia will raise the minimum wage by 5.75% from July 1 as families grapple with soaring living costs, a decision that businesses and some economists say risks further stoking inflation and interest rates. The independent Fair Work Commission (FWC) on Friday decided on a 5.75% pay rise for workers on awards with wages linked to movement in the minimum wage. It also made a technical reclassification for the national minimum wage, which the union says will take the increase to 8.6% for the lowest-paid employees, about 0.7% of the workforce. "Following several recent developments, including the outcome of today's minimum wage decision, we are adding a 25bp hike to our RBA profile in June and another 25bp in July." "Today's increase means these workers can keep their heads above water and not have to cut back even further."

Persons: Steven Saphore, Lin Ong, Philip Lowe, Taylor Nugent, Adam Hatcher, Hatcher, Andrew McKellar, Sally McManus, Stella Qiu, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: REUTERS, RBC Capital Markets, Reserve Bank of Australia, National Australia Bank, Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Australian Council of Trade Unions, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia, Lincoln

☆ Dollar eases as US inflation cools
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SINGAPORE, April 13 (Reuters) - The dollar was on the back foot on Thursday after cooler-than-anticipated U.S. inflation data lifted risk sentiment and stoked expectations that the Federal Reserve will be done with its monetary tightening after hiking one last time next month. The dollar index , which measures the currency against six major peers, eased 0.03% to 101.44, hovering around a one week low of 101.40 after sinking 0.6% overnight. "While disinflation trends continue and broadened across headline, core and supercore measures, the CPI report is hardly an all clear on inflation," strategists at Saxo Markets said. Taylor Nugent, an economist at National Australia Bank, said the CPI data and the minutes provided ample fodder for those reading the Fed tea leaves, noting that inflation showed welcome, but not overwhelming progress. The Japanese yen weakened 0.04% to 133.20 per dollar, while sterling was last trading at $1.2486, up 0.04% on the day.

☆ Dollar eases as U.S. inflation cools
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

An image of the U.S. dollar bill and a euro coinThe dollar was on the back foot on Thursday after cooler-than-anticipated U.S. inflation data lifted risk sentiment and stoked expectations that the Federal Reserve will be done with its monetary tightening after hiking one last time next month. The dollar index , which measures the currency against six major peers, eased 0.03% to 101.44, hovering around a one week low of 101.40 after sinking 0.6% overnight. "While disinflation trends continue and broadened across headline, core and supercore measures, the CPI report is hardly an all clear on inflation," strategists at Saxo Markets said. Taylor Nugent, an economist at National Australia Bank, said the CPI data and the minutes provided ample fodder for those reading the Fed tea leaves, noting that inflation showed welcome, but not overwhelming progress. The Japanese yen weakened 0.04% to 133.20 per dollar, while sterling was last trading at $1.2486, up 0.04% on the day.

☆ Asian stocks rally as bank jitters calm, Alibaba lifts mood
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Alibaba's Hong Kong shares (9988.HK) shot up 15%, while the company's U.S.-listed shares closed 14.3% higher. The news lifted investor confidence in the wider Chinese tech sector, with shares of Alibaba's e-commerce rival JD.com Inc (9618.HK) 7% higher, and gaming giant Tencent Holdings Ltd (0700.HK) jumping 5%. "Alibaba's split may pave the way for other Chinese tech giants to do similar," CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng said. "This helps break down the monopolistic power of these conglomerates, which complies with the Chinese government's regulatory overhaul over antitrust issues." Futures indicated European stocks were set to open higher, with Eurostoxx 50 futures up 0.41%, German DAX futures up 0.38% and FTSE futures up 0.08%.

☆ Asian stocks rally as banking anxiety eases; Alibaba surges
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was 0.82% higher, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) advanced 0.49%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index surged over 2%, buoyed by Alibaba (9988.HK) after the Chinese e-commerce conglomerate announced its break-up plans. Alibaba's Hong Kong shares (9988.HK) shot up 15%, while the company's U.S.-listed shares closed 14.3% higher. Worries over inflation have prompted investors to recalculate what they expect the Fed to do in its next meeting in May. In the foreign exchange markets, the dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six peers, was mostly flat, having eased 0.3% overnight on improving risk appetite.

☆ Asia shares pin hopes on China opening, oil rallies
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The news helped oil prices firm as OPEC+ nations reaffirmed their output targets ahead of a European Union ban and price caps on Russian crude, which kick off on Monday. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) added 0.2%, after rallying 3.7% last week to a three-month top. Markets are wagering Fed rates will top out at 5% and the European Central Bank around 2.5%. read moreCentral banks in Australia, Canada and India are all expected to raise their rates at meetings this week. Oil prices bounced after OPEC+ agreed to stick to its oil output targets at a meeting on Sunday.

☆ Asia shares jump as investors anticipate smaller interest rate rises
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-27 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was 1.59% higher and set for third straight session of gains. China's stock market (.SSEC) opened 0.1% higher on Friday, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (.HIS) up 2.6% at the open. U.S. Treasury yields fell, helped by a weaker dollar and the expectations of the Fed becoming less hawkish. The slide in dollar has also helped push gold prices higher, with spot gold scaling a two-week high on Wednesday. Oil prices continued to rise in early Asian trade on Thursday after surging more than 3% in the previous session.

☆ Asia stocks slide as investors lose risk appetite, yields rise
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Japan's yen crept close to the psychological barrier of 150 per dollar after earlier marking a fresh 32-year low of 149.93. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury US10YT=RR note touched a fresh 14-year high, brushing off a weak housing report. U.S. 10-year yields were last up at 4.139%, beyond the 4.136% high it touched earlier. China's stock market (.SSEC) opened 0.5% lower as the ruling Communist Party's twice-a-decade congress remains in session this week. The rise in the dollar and yields pushed gold lower, with prices lingering at a three-week trough on Thursday.

☆ Asia stocks slip as risk appetite wanes on rate-hike fears
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

European stock futures indicated stocks were set to decline, with Eurostoxx 50 futures down 0.43%, German DAX futures down 0.45% and FTSE futures down 0.25%. "Yields rose to fresh cycle highs and risk appetite soured," said Taylor Nugent, a markets economist at National Australia Bank in Sydney. China's stock market (.SSEC) fell on Thursday while Hong Kong stocks (.HSI) hit levels last seen during the 2008-09 global financial crisis. Sterling fell 0.2% to $1.12005 even as the inflation data showed food prices have jumped the most since 1980. /FRX"I think the risk of another intervention continues to be very high," said Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Carol Kong.

☆ Asian stocks sink, yields rise as markets brace for aggressive Fed
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterMSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares (.MIAP00000PUS) lost 1%. Sweden's Riksbank surprised markets overnight with a full percentage-point hike, and warned of more to come over the next six months. Markets are pricing in an 81% chance of another 75-basis-point increase, and see a 19% probability of a full percentage point rise. The Bank offered to buy 250 billion yen of bonds in an unscheduled operation on Wednesday to keep yields in check. Meanwhile, crude oil continued its decline amid worries that aggressive tightening by the Fed and other central banks would crimp growth and curb demand.

☆ Asia markets trade lower ahead of Federal Reserve’s expected rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( Abigail Ng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

The Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE), operated by Japan Exchange Group Inc. (JPX), in Tokyo, Japan, on Monday, Nov. 30, 2020. The Nikkei 225 in Japan dropped 1% in early trade, while the Topix index fell 0.94%. Shares in the Asia-Pacific opened lower Wednesday, following Wall Street's negative lead ahead of the Federal Reserve's expected rate hike . "A sourer tone took hold over the past 24 hours, with equities lower and haven currencies, including the dollar, stronger," Taylor Nugent, economist at National Australia Bank, wrote in a Wednesday note. The dollar index strengthened above the 110 level.

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